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13/11/03 - EURO 2004 Play-offs

Ten teams have already come through the qualifiers to join hosts Portugal at the finals of EURO 2004. The 12th edition of the European Football Championships will be played between the 12th of June and the 4th of August next summer, and over the next few days we will discover the identities of the final five participants. Most of Europe's traditional footballing superpowers have already secured their tickets to the party but there are still some big name nations who must fight for their places in the lottery of the play-offs. Foremost among them are Spain, the Netherlands and World Cup semi-finalists Turkey. The matches take place over two legs on a home and away basis on Saturday the 15th of November and Wednesday the 19th.

First to kick off will be Scotland who pipped Iceland and Lithuania to second place behind Germany in a very tight qualifying group. They have been handed the toughest possible draw, facing a Holland team who are coached by former Rangers boss Dick Advocaat. The Dutch manager has a good knowledge of Scottish football and will be extremely familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the players his team must beat. This makes the Netherlands firm favourites for the tie, especially since they have the luxury of playing the second leg at home in the Amsterdam ArenA. But rest assured, there will be several thousand Tartan clad supporters in and around the ground on Wednesday night which guarantees a great atmosphere if Scotland have taken at least a draw from the first match. We can expect a tight game at Hampden Park, Glasgow on Saturday, with Scotland looking to nullify the creative elements in the Dutch midfield and prevent them scoring an away goal. Scotland's qualifying matches produced few goals and the team suffers from the lack of a top class striker who can really terrorise an international defence. Their strength lies in their unity and competitiveness as a group but they will have to be on top form if they are to reach next summer's finals.

Holland have been off form of late and once again the harmony in the squad has suffered from internal disputes between the playing and coaching staff. Striker Ruud Van Nistelrooy is back in contention for a starting place after his much publicised fall-out with Dick Advocaat, but it seems that he is unlikely to be paired with Patrick Kluivert while the ex-Rangers boss remains in charge. However, in Roy Makaay and Pierre Van Hooijdonk, Holland have an embarrassment of riches in that department. For them, the key to success lies in the midfield and how well they can break down the Scottish resistance to carve out chances for their front men. Their failure in the play-offs for World Cup 2002 against the Republic of Ireland was down to poor tactical decisions when then coach Louis Van Gaal shot himself in the foot by replacing his wingers with strikers only to find they were deprived of any service. Unfortunately for Scotland, they are unlikely to make the same mistake twice and with players such as Overmars, Seedorf, Zenden and Van Der Vaart available they now have the creativity to cause the Scots major problems. It is hard to predict anything other than a Dutch victory over two legs but I believe that Scotland will make them fight for their place in the finals and will be going to Amsterdam still in with a chance of qualification. 

Russia and Wales are the second set of teams to take to the field in the EURO 2004 play-offs. The Welsh had a great start to their qualifying campaign and were seemingly on course to qualify for their first major tournament since 1958, but they finished with a terrible run of form and now have an uphill task to reach the finals. The first leg takes place in Moscow where the Welsh will expect to have to contend with sub-zero temperatures and a bumpy pitch. The Russian capital is an unforgiving venue for away teams and few come home with anything to show from their visit, as Arsenal have found out to their cost in recent seasons. Russia are not the force they used to be and finished runners-up to Switzerland in their group, but nevertheless, they have a talented squad of players who work hard for each other. Wales will want to take at least a draw back to Cardiff for the second leg in the Millennium Stadium, and manager Mark Hughes would be delighted if they could score an away goal but that would be a tremendous achievement in the light of recent welsh results and their current injury crisis. Striker Craig Bellamy is missing, as are midfielders Simon Davies and Mark Pembridge so Wales must look to Celtic's John Hartson and Ryan Giggs to provide the inspiration and goals. A packed Millennium Stadium will expect their team to finally deliver after so many failures, but by then it could be too late. I feel that Russia will prove to be too strong a test for the men in red.

The third play-off tie to get underway is a Balkan derby between Croatia and Slovenia, which should produce a couple of exciting matches and a great atmosphere in the stadia. Both teams performed well in the qualifiers, Croatia finished level on points with Belgium in a tie for second place behind Bulgaria but progressed thanks to their water-tight defence. The Slovenes came through a much more lop-sided group in which they finished a comfortable second behind run-away winners France. On paper, this seems to be the most balanced match-up in the play-offs and much will depend on who performs on the night. The Slovenes are perhaps more consistent than their southern neighbours, whereas Croatia can play some brilliant football from time to time but have the capacity to self destruct if things aren't going their way. If Slovenia can get a result in the first leg at home in Ljubljana they are well capable of defending their advantage in Zagreb, but overall I feel that Croatia are the stronger of the two teams and are more likely to progress.

In the fourth game, Latvia take on Turkey in Riga, with the second leg taking place four days later in Istanbul. This would appear to be the most one-sided of the ties on paper as the Turks are considerably stronger than their Latvian counterparts. The Latvians have already exceeded expectations in reaching this stage, having overcome the challenge of Poland and Hungary thanks to a tight defence and a surprise away win against the already qualified Swedes. In the absence of Marians Pahars, they have relied heavily on the goals of Maris Verpakovskis and midfielder Imants Bleidelis to take them this far, but they will have to catch Turkey on a bad day to have a hope of causing a major upset. Perhaps the Turks will find it difficult to adapt to the conditions in Riga, but they should win comfortably in front of their own fans and we can expect to see them in Portugal.

The final play-off tie gets underway on Saturday evening at the Mestalla stadium in Valencia. Spain were expected to waltz through their qualifying group but slipped up at home against the Greeks and only drew with Northern Ireland in Belfast. Their public will expect them to make amends against a Norway team who have found goals hard to come by in recent times. The Norwegians were involved in a four way tussle for qualification in a group that went right down to the wire. Eventually, they edged out Romania and Bosnia to claim second spot behind Denmark, but could only manage a 1-0 win over Luxembourg in their crucial match. The two legs of this contest should be very different games, with each country hoping to hold their own away from home and take advantage of the conditions in their own back yard. Traditionally, Spain have struggled under pressure and they won't relish having to get a result on a cold night in Oslo, so expect them to attack from the start in Valencia. Norway will almost certainly try to absorb the pressure and hit them on the break, but will be without Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. If Spain haven't taken the lead by half time you can expect the mounting frustration in the crowd to start affecting the players, in which case Norway will probably go on to win the tie. If Spain score an early goal, the Norwegian game plan will go out of the window and the Spaniards are likely to take a comfortable lead into the second match.

19/11/02 - World Club Cup

On the 3rd of December Paraguayan club Olimpia will take on Europe's finest, Real Madrid for the 41st World Club Cup. The trophy was created in 1960 to give the champions of Europe and South America the chance to compete for the status of 'best club in the world'. Originally played over two legs, it was moved to Japan in 1980 and the format changed to a one-off match known as the 'Tokyo Cup'. This year, for the first time, it will be played in Yokohama's World Cup final stadium.

The South American sides have traditionally treated the game more seriously than their European counterparts and this year is likely to be no exception with Olimpia going out early to acclimatise. In 40 editions the South Americans have been victorious on 21 occasions to Europe's 19 although Real Madrid have won it twice before and Olimpia only once. This year Real will start as hot favourites but it remains to be seen how motivated their stars will be for the occasion.

The Paraguayans have an impressive record in South American club competitions having won three Copa Libertadores titles to add to their 38 domestic championships and the club website proudly states that Real Madrid and Olimpia are two of the most decorated clubs in world football, having won more than 100 titles between them. The figure 100 is particularly significant because both clubs are celebrating their centenary this year which adds an extra dimension to the match - to opportunity to crown their year of celebrations with the ultimate accolade.

However, this season has brought mixed fortunes for Olimpia. All-conquering in continental football, they struggled in their national championship, finishing a poor fourth overall. This is often the way in South America where clubs lack the resources to maintain a squad large enough to compete simultaneously on two fronts and often have to focus on a single competition to the detriment of another. In the Copa Libertadores they proved their worth with a series of solid if unspectacular displays and penalty shoot-out victories to walk off with the spoils which mean they won't be too worried about their domestic form.

In the best Paraguayan tradition, the foundation of their success is a resolute and uncompromising back-four which is extremely hard to break down. Their Libertadores campaign brought 19 goals for and only 12 against in 14 matches including tough ties against Boca Juniors, Gremio and surprise finalists São Caetano of Brazil. There are few big names in the side and those best known to Europeans will be World Cup goalkeeper Ricardo Tavarelli and ageing striker Miguel Benitez who rarely features nowadays. Many will remember coach Nery Pumpido as the Argentinean goalkeeper from World Cups 1986 and 1990.

Olimpia will try to close the game down and compete physically with Real, hitting them on the break, but the Spaniards should have the weapons to carve out enough opportunities to win the game. However, if the odds are good enough, it is well worth a flutter on the Paraguayans.

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